Prospects Dim as US, Russia Prepare to Meet Over Ukraine

With the destiny of Ukraine and perchance broader post-Cold War European stableness astatine stake, the United States and Russia are holding captious strategical talks that could signifier the aboriginal of not lone their narration but the narration betwixt the U.S. and its NATO allies. Prospects are bleak.

Though the immediacy of the menace of a Russian penetration of Ukraine volition apical the docket successful a bid of high-level meetings that get underway connected Monday, determination is simply a litany of festering but mostly unrelated disputes, ranging from arms power to cybercrime and diplomatic issues, for Washington and Moscow to flooded if tensions are to ease. And the caller deployment of Russian troops to Kazakhstan whitethorn formed a shadiness implicit the full exercise.

With overmuch astatine hazard and some informing of dire consequences of failure, the 2 sides person been positioning themselves for what volition beryllium a astir unprecedented flurry of enactment successful Europe this week. Yet the wide divergence successful their opening positions bodes sick for immoderate benignant of speedy resolution, and levels of distrust look higher than astatine immoderate constituent since the illness of the Soviet Union.

U.S. officials connected Saturday unveiled immoderate details of the administration's stance, which look to autumn good abbreviated of Russian demands. The officials said the U.S. is unfastened to discussions connected curtailing imaginable aboriginal deployments of violative missiles successful Ukraine and putting limits connected American and NATO subject exercises successful Eastern Europe if Russia is consenting to backmost disconnected connected Ukraine.

But they besides said Russia volition beryllium deed hard with economical sanctions should it intervene successful Ukraine. In summation to nonstop sanctions connected Russian entities, those penalties could see important restrictions connected products exported from the U.S. to Russia and perchance foreign-made products taxable to U.S. jurisdiction.

Russia wants the talks initially to nutrient formally binding information guarantees for itself with a pledge that NATO volition not further grow eastward and the removal of U.S. troops and weapons from parts of Europe. But the U.S. and its allies accidental those are non-starters intentionally designed by Moscow to distract and divide. They importune that immoderate Russian subject involution successful Ukraine volition punctual “massive consequences” that volition dramatically disrupt Russia’s system adjacent if they person planetary ripple effects.

In a bid to forestall efforts by Russia to sow discord successful the West, the Biden medication has gone retired of its mode to accent that neither Ukraine nor Europe much broadly volition beryllium excluded from immoderate treatment of Ukraine’s oregon Europe’s security.

Biden medication officials let that neither taxable tin beryllium wholly ignored erstwhile elder American and Russian diplomats beryllium down successful Geneva successful Monday up of larger, much inclusive meetings successful Brussels and Vienna connected Wednesday and Thursday that volition research those issues successful possibly much depth.

Still, the mantras “nothing astir Ukraine without Ukraine” and “nothing astir Europe without Europe” person go astir cliche successful Washington successful caller weeks, and elder U.S. officials person gone truthful acold arsenic to accidental they expect Russia to prevarication astir the contented of Monday’s gathering to effort to stoke divisions.

“We afloat expect that the Russian broadside volition marque nationalist comments pursuing the gathering connected Monday that volition not bespeak the existent quality of the discussions that took place,” said 1 elder U.S. authoritative who volition enactment successful the talks. The authoritative was not authorized to talk publically and spoke connected information of anonymity.

That authoritative and others person urged allies to presumption with "extreme skepticism” thing Moscow says astir the alleged Strategic Stability Talks and hold until they are briefed by the American participants to signifier opinions.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused Russia of “gaslighting” and mounting a full-scale disinformation run designed to blasted Ukraine, NATO and peculiarly the United States for the existent tensions and undercut Western unity. He said Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaged successful an all-out warfare connected the information that ignores Russia's ain provocative and destabilizing actions implicit the people of the past decade.

“Russia seeks to situation the planetary strategy itself and to unravel our trans-Atlantic alliance, erode our unity, unit democracies into failure,” Blnken said connected Friday, going done a database of offending Russian enactment ranging from subject involution successful Ukraine and Georgia to chemic weapons attacks connected Putin critics to predetermination interference successful the U.S. and elsewhere, cybercrime and enactment for dictators.

Despite respective conversations betwixt President Joe Biden and Putin, including an in-person gathering past summer, Blinken said specified behaviour continues, astatine expanding hazard to the post-World War II planetary order.

Thus, the intensified U.S. and allied effort to forge communal positions connected some the warnings and the “severe costs” to Russia if it moves against Ukraine. While expressions of unity person been forthcoming, Blinken was not optimistic astir prospects for occurrence successful the talks.

“To the grade that determination is advancement to beryllium made — and we anticipation that determination is — existent advancement is going to beryllium precise hard to make, if not impossible, successful an situation of escalation by Russia,” helium said.

Russia, meanwhile, has spun a communicative that it is simply a threatened unfortunate of Western aggression and wants speedy results from the meetings contempt what look insurmountable differences.

Putin has repeatedly warned that Moscow volition person to instrumentality unspecified “military-technical measures” if the West stonewalls Russia’s demands, and affirmed that NATO rank for Ukraine oregon the deployment of confederation weapons determination is simply a reddish enactment for Moscow that it wouldn’t let the West to cross.

“We person obscurity to retreat,” Putin said past month, adding that NATO could deploy missiles successful Ukraine that would instrumentality conscionable 4 oregon 5 minutes to scope Moscow. “They person pushed america to a enactment that we can’t cross. They person taken it to the constituent wherever we simply indispensable archer them; ‘Stop!’”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who volition pb Russia's delegation astatine the Geneva talks crossed from U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, said past week that it volition rapidly go wide whether the talks could beryllium productive.

“It volition go wide aft the adjacent week’s events whether it’s imaginable to execute speedy progress, to rapidly beforehand connected issues that are of involvement to us,” helium said successful an interrogation with the regular Izvestia.

“So far, we person heard immoderate beauteous abstract remark from the U.S., NATO and others astir immoderate things being acceptable and immoderate not and an accent connected dialog and the value for Russia to de-escalate. There are precise fewer rational elements successful that attack owed to the unstoppable and rather intensive subject and geopolitical developments of the territories adjacent Russian borders by NATO, the emergence of weapons systems there, activization of drills.“

On Sunday evening, Ryabkov and Sherman volition conscionable implicit a moving meal to sermon topics for the adjacent day's talks, a U.S. authoritative said.